Weather, agriculture and rural migration: evidence from state and district level migration in India

Abstract

Abstract This study explores three-way linkage between weather, agricultural performance and internal migration in India at the state and district level using census data. The estimations are based on a two-stage least squares model using panel data. The elasticity of the inter-state out-migration rate with respect to per capita net state domestic agricultural product is − 0.775, indicating that a decline in the value of agricultural output related to weather variations results in an increase in out-migration rate. The crop-wise analysis shows that a 1 per cent decline in rice (wheat) yield leads to a nearly 2 per cent (1 per cent) increase in the rate of out-migration from a state. The district-level analysis shows larger magnitudes of estimated change in in-migration rates to relative changes in crop yields. However, the district-level analysis using two-period panel data constructed from a single census provides relatively less robust results compared to the state-level analysis owing to the associated data limitations.