Conflict Detection and Resolution In the Presence of Prediction Error

Abstract

This paper describes the design of a conflict detection and resolution tool, referred to as a Conflict Probe, for use by enroute #Center# air traffic controllers. This tool is designed to help detect and resolve all classes of conflicts, suchas overflight/overflight, arrival/overflight, climbout/overflight, etc., up to twenty minutes in advance. The design is based on an approach that combines deterministic trajectory prediction and stochastic conflict analysis to achieve reliable conflict detection. The paper begins by formulating error models for trajectory prediction. Then an efficient algorithm is described for estimating conflict probability as a function of encounter geometry. The conflict probability theory and algorithm are applied to the design of the Con#ict Probe and are further used to develop a method of automated conflict resolution with constraints on the post-resolution conflict probability. Next, aircraft performance models and equations of motion for generating four-dimensional tra...