Personality, Emotionality, and Risk Prediction

Abstract

We suggest a new approach for measuring individual differences in optimistic bias that adjusts risk estimates for oneself for: (1) risk estimates for other persons to control for response tendencies, and (2) risk estimates by knowledgeable informants to control for differences in actual risk. In two studies, we measured Positive and Negative Emotionality by self-reports and reports by knowledgeable informants. Moreover, likelihood estimates that pleasant and unpleasant events will occur to oneself and to an average other person were collected, and the knowledgeable informants provided risk estimates for the research participants. Risk estimates by knowledgeable informants were even more optimistic than self-estimates, and optimistic bias was related directly to Positive Emotionality and inversely to Negative Emotionality. These effects of personality on optimistic bias were not mediated by current mood.