Uncertainty Propagation in Hypersonic Aerothermoelastic Analysis

Abstract

A framework for uncertainty propagation in hypersonic aeroelastic and aerothermoelastic analyses is presented. First, the aeroelastic stability of a typical section representative of a control surface on a hypersonic vehicle is examined. Variability in the uncoupled natural frequencies of the system is modeled using beta probability distributions. Uncertainty in the flutter Mach number is computed using stochastic collocation. Next, the stability of an aerodynamically heated panel representing a component of the skin of a hypersonic vehicle is considered. In this case, uncertainty is due to the location of transition from laminar to turbulent flow and the heat flux prediction. The effect of propagating these uncertainties on vehicle behavior is determined. For both cases, uncertainty is treated using stochastic collocation, which is a new and effective approach for incorporating uncertainty in this class of problems.