Predictors of Offense Severity, Adjudication, Incarceration, and Repeat Referrals for Juvenile Offenders

Abstract

The authors examined predictors of offense severity, judicial disposition (e.g., diversion, prosecution, incarceration), and repeat offending. Data were obtained on approximately 100,000 individuals from the South Carolina Department of Juvenile Justice. Whites and females were more likely to be prosecuted than Blacks and males, particularly for less serious offenses. At first and second referrals, Blacks were more likely to be incarcerated than Whites. Youth referred before age 14 were more likely to recidivate and youth prosecuted for earlier offenses were more likely to recidivate than those not prosecuted. Father absence and special education status were also predictive of recidivism. Prosecution for first referral was predictive of earlier reoffending at all severity levels of first offense.