A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

TLDR

The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium‑ to large‑scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The study investigates the predictive capability of AFFS in hindcast mode by reproducing 2003 hydrological predictions during significant floods. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, ECMWF meteorological ensemble predictions, and critical hydrological thresholds, with verification against ground measurements of 36 sub‑catchments and flood archives. Results showed that AFFS correctly detected about 70 % of reported flood events, performed well for long‑duration (>1 week) and large‑area (>10 000 km²) riverine floods, but had limitations for small‑scale and short‑duration events, and a March 2003 Sabi.

Abstract

Abstract. The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts) and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper, the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 when important floods were observed. Results were verified by ground measurements of 36 sub-catchments as well as by reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.