A dynamic model simulating infection of apple leaves by <i>Venturia inaequalis</i>

Abstract

A new dynamic model of the infection of apple leaves by Venturia inaequalis is described. The model begins with the release of spores by rain and incorporates the effect of light on the discharge of ascospores from pseudothecia. The model then simulates infection through the sub‐processes of germination, appressorium formation and penetration, separately for ascospores and conidia landed concurrently on wet leaves. The rate of the infection process is determined using different equations for ascospores and conidia. Spore mortality when leaves dry is determined by the stage of infection and RH in the dry period. The infection process is driven by surface wetness, temperature and RH. The progress of each infection period is measured as infection efficiency (IE), namely the percentage of landed spores which have penetrated and thereby infected leaves. The final IE quantifies the favourability of weather in each infection period. In orchard tests in each of three years, the new model detected crucial infection periods in spring and early summer which accounted for outbreaks of leaf scab. These periods were not detected by a static model based on Mills’criteria. The models performed similarly in detecting infection periods later in summer.