The Mobilizing Effect of Majority–Minority Districts on Latino Turnout

TLDR

The study investigates whether living in majority–minority districts affects Latino voter turnout, hypothesizing that such districts empower voters and that overlapping Latino districts further increase turnout. The authors analyze individual‑level turnout data from five Southern California counties to test these hypotheses. Across three elections (1996–2000) in those counties, Latino turnout rose with residence in majority‑Latino districts and with more overlapping Latino districts, while non‑Hispanic turnout fell as the number of majority‑Latino district layers increased.

Abstract

We inquire whether residence in majority–minority districts raises or lowers turnout among Latinos. We argue that the logic suggesting that majority–minority districts suppress turnout is flawed and hypothesize that the net effect is empowering. Further, we suggest that residing in multiple overlapping majority–minority districts—for state assemblies, senates, and the U.S. House—further enhances turnout. We test our hypotheses using individual-level turnout data for voters in five Southern California counties. Examining three general elections from 1996 to 2000, we demonstrate that residing in a majority-Latino district ultimately has a positive effect on the propensity of Latino voters to turn out, an effect that increases with the number of Latino districts in which the voter resides and is consistent across the individual offices in which a voter might be descriptively represented. In contrast, the probability that non-Hispanic voters turn out decreases as they are subject to increasing layers of majority-Latino districting.