Worldwide Trends in Incidence Rates for Oral Cavity and Oropharyngeal Cancers

TLDR

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been identified as the cause of the increasing oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence in some countries. The study examined global incidence trends of oropharyngeal and oral cavity cancers in 23 countries using Cancer Incidence in Five Continents data from 1983–2002 to assess whether HPV‑driven increases are worldwide. The authors applied age‑period‑cohort modeling and country‑ and sex‑specific analyses to compare OPC trends with OCC and lung cancer trends, highlighting HPV versus smoking influences. OPC incidence rose markedly from 1983 to 2002, especially among men in developed countries and at younger ages, while women showed concurrent rises in both OPC and OCC, and the pattern supports a significant HPV contribution to the global increase.

Abstract

Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been identified as the cause of the increasing oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) incidence in some countries. To investigate whether this represents a global phenomenon, we evaluated incidence trends for OPCs and oral cavity cancers (OCCs) in 23 countries across four continents.We used data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents database Volumes VI to IX (years 1983 to 2002). Using age-period-cohort modeling, incidence trends for OPCs were compared with those of OCCs and lung cancers to delineate the potential role of HPV vis-à-vis smoking on incidence trends. Analyses were country specific and sex specific.OPC incidence significantly increased during 1983 to 2002 predominantly in economically developed countries. Among men, OPC incidence significantly increased in the United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, and Slovakia, despite nonsignificant or significantly decreasing incidence of OCCs. In contrast, among women, in all countries with increasing OPC incidence (Denmark, Estonia, France, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland, and United Kingdom), there was a concomitant increase in incidence of OCCs. Although increasing OPC incidence among men was accompanied by decreasing lung cancer incidence, increasing incidence among women was generally accompanied by increasing lung cancer incidence. The magnitude of increase in OPC incidence among men was significantly higher at younger ages (< 60 years) than older ages in the United States, Australia, Canada, Slovakia, Denmark, and United Kingdom.OPC incidence significantly increased during 1983 to 2002 predominantly in developed countries and at younger ages. These results underscore a potential role for HPV infection on increasing OPC incidence, particularly among men.