Using Simulation to Develop and Validate Analytic Models: Some Case Studies

Abstract

Simulation models are generally costly tools to use in systems analyses. Whenever applicable, a simple analytic model is preferable. However, in many cases the conditions assumed by solvable analytic models do not hold in the real world; hence an analyst would hesitate to use them. A simulation can be used to suggest an appropriate approximate model and to determine how good an approximation a given analytic model is. We show how simulations of New York City's fire and police operations have been used to develop and validate simple analytic models that are now being used to analyze the deployment of resources in these two services.