Use of Bayesian geostatistical prediction to estimate local variations in Schistosoma haematobium infection in western Africa

Abstract

National aggregate estimates of infection mask important local variations:: e.g. most S. haematobium infections in the Niger occur in the Niger River valley. High-intensity infection was strongly clustered in western and central Mali, north-eastern and northwestern Burkina Faso and the Niger River valley in the Niger. Populations in these foci will carry the bulk of the urinary schistosomiasis burden and should be prioritized for schistosomiasis control. Uncertainties in the predicted prevalence and the numbers infected should be acknowledged by control programme planners.