Supply chain reliability for contingency operations

Abstract

A contingency is a randomly occurring crises event such as a national disaster, civil disorder, or military invasion that creates a major threat to the safety and security of a population that requires immediate responsive operations that include the development and maintenance of supply chains to provide the logistics support functions. A method for quantifying the reliability of supply chains for contingency logistics systems is developed based on reliability interference theory. Supply chain reliability is defined as the probability of the chain meeting mission requirements to provide the required supplies to the critical transfer points within the system. The authors consider a flow of supplies that are deployed to a distribution center from which allocations are then made to n sites, each being engaged at a high operational tempo to meet the mission requirements of the contingency.