The Future of Terrorism

Abstract

Despite pundit hysteria and media hype, the actual threat of terrorism has shrunk in recent years. The decline, which commenced during the late 1980s, includes reductions in the number of incidents, groups, and fatalities. Although the 1990s saw a significant increase in the number of people injured in terrorist attacks, less than 1% of the incidents caused more than 70% of the injuries. Radical Islamic groups account for only a small percentage of terrorist attacks but are disproportionately responsible for casualties. The decline and containment of terrorism hinges on the reluctance of states to sponsor terrorist attacks, the spread of democracy, and more effective anti- and counterterrorist methods.