Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

TLDR

Tropical deforestation accounts for about one‑quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, biodiversity loss, and other environmental services, and UNFCCC negotiations are now considering mechanisms to avoid deforestation, though its economic potential remains unaddressed. The study uses three global land‑use economic models to assess the contribution of avoided deforestation to greenhouse gas emission reductions. The authors employ these models and discuss caveats that could raise the costs of avoided‑deforestation programs. Avoided deforestation is a competitive, low‑cost abatement option, with a 10 % reduction from 2005‑2030 yielding 0.3–0.6 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ for $0.4–1.7 bn yr⁻¹, and a 50 % reduction yielding 1.5–2.7 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ for $17.2–28.0 bn yr⁻¹.

Abstract

Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 10(5) g) CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion.yr(-1) for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO(2).yr(-1) in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion.yr(-1). Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.