Inoperability Input-Output Model for Interdependent Infrastructure Sectors. II: Case Studies

TLDR

The IIM assesses sector vulnerabilities via inoperability and economic loss metrics, and HEMP—an intense electromagnetic blast from high‑elevation nuclear explosions—can damage electronic and electrical systems. The study applies the IIM to high‑altitude electromagnetic pulse attack scenarios on interdependent sectors and proposes cost‑benefit‑risk balanced recovery solutions. The authors perform parametric and uncertainty analyses of disruption intensity, recovery characteristics, loss‑reduction policies, and attack scope, and conduct trade‑off analyses of resource‑allocation strategies for recovery. The study identifies electric power, electronic equipment, and workforce as most vulnerable to HEMP and recommends cost‑benefit‑risk balanced recovery strategies.

Abstract

The paper discusses case studies of the inoperability input-output model (IIM) for modeling impacts of willful attacks on interdependent sectors. The IIM is a model for assessing sector vulnerabilities using the inoperability and economic loss impact metrics. The case studies focus on high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) attack scenarios. HEMP is an intense electromagnetic blast induced from high-elevation nuclear explosions, potentially causing damage to electronic and electrical systems. Parametric and uncertainty analyses are conducted for assessing (1) intensity of initial disruptions, (2) sector recovery characteristics, (3) economic loss reduction policies for critical sectors, and (4) regional scope of an attack. Sectors susceptible to a HEMP attack have been identified, including electric power, electronic equipment, and workforce. Trade-off analyses are performed to analyze the efficacy of resource allocation strategies associated with recovery. Recommendations from this paper include developing cost-benefit-risk balanced solutions for managing and expediting recovery time from potential terrorist attacks.