Reconsidering the Link between Incumbent Support and Pro-EU Opinion

Abstract

According to some recent work on the attitudes towards European integration, supporters of incumbent parties are generally more pro-European than supporters of opposition parties. However, there are theoretical reasons to expect supporters of governing parties to be skeptical of European integration. Upon closer examination, the relationship between incumbent support and pro-European Union (EU) attitudes is a conditional one, which appears primarily when referendums are held on European topics or during European Parliament (EP) election years. At other times, there is a weak positive relationship between incumbent support and support for the current European Union, but a negative relationship with support for further unification. This suggests that supporters of incumbent parties are not natural advocates for reform of the institutions of the EU.