Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling

TLDR

Bioclimatic envelope models link climate variables to species occurrences to delineate suitable conditions, are used across ecology, evolution, and conservation, but their usefulness has been questioned due to potentially implausible assumptions or empirical contradictions, and their value depends on proper application and a clear understanding of their conceptual strengths and limits. The authors review contentious issues surrounding bioclimatic envelope models and argue that criticism is often misplaced because users confuse the models’ actual outputs with desired expressions. They conclude that criticism is largely misplaced, that model usefulness hinges on appropriate use, and that improvements will arise mainly from greater awareness of their conceptual basis, strengths, and limitations.

Abstract

Bioclimatic envelope models use associations between aspects of climate and species' occurrences to estimate the conditions that are suitable to maintain viable populations. Once bioclimatic envelopes are characterized, they can be applied to a variety of questions in ecology, evolution, and conservation. However, some have questioned the usefulness of these models, because they may be based on implausible assumptions or may be contradicted by empirical evidence. We review these areas of contention, and suggest that criticism has often been misplaced, resulting from confusion between what the models actually deliver and what users wish that they would express. Although improvements in data and methods will have some effect, the usefulness of these models is contingent on their appropriate use, and they will improve mainly via better awareness of their conceptual basis, strengths, and limitations.