Mean Squared Error of Estimation or Prediction under a General Linear Model

Abstract

Abstract The problem considered is that of predicting a linear combination of the fixed and random effects of a mixed-effects linear model. More generally, the problem considered is that of predicting an unobservable random variable from a set of observable random variables. The best linear-unbiased predictor depends on parameters which generally are unknown. Various exact or approximate expressions are given for the mean squared error (MSE) of the predictor obtained by replacing the unknown parameters with estimates. Several estimators of the MSE are investigated.