Accuracy of Estimations Made by Air Traffic Controllers

Abstract

This study focuses on the accuracy of estimates made by air traffic controllers of aircraft future positions. The aim is to gain deeper understanding of anticipatory activity in dynamic situations. Analysis of the results reveals response biases of which the most common is that controllers predict aircraft positions as being closer than their actual positions. We demonstrate that estimations are affected by situation contextual and psychological factors. We also discuss the transferability of time reasoning models developed in the field of time psychology, in the light of the results obtained. We conclude by raising some issues relative to the design of control-aid tools.