Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt

TLDR

The growing number of artificial satellites raises collision risk, which would generate orbiting fragments that could form a debris belt whose flux may surpass natural meteoroid levels and threaten future spacecraft. The study aims to assess how early launch constraints and operational procedures could delay the formation of an Earth‑orbit debris belt. The authors employed a mathematical model to predict the rate of debris belt formation. The model indicates that a debris belt could form within this century, posing a significant problem in the next century, and that existing unobserved fragments from spacecraft explosions could accelerate this timeline.

Abstract

As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain theories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth‐orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.