The Energy Journal · 2010 · 83 citations · 37 references
AgricultureSustainable AgricultureEnergy EconomicsEnergy PolicySustainable DevelopmentBioenergy SystemsBiomass Energy SystemsEnergy SustainabilityLand Use SustainabilitySustainable Energy SystemsSustainable Resource UseClimate Scenario AnalysisConversion RatesEnergy Resource UseImprovement Scenario AnalysisScenariosStabilization
Higher bio‑energy potential requires a development path with high agricultural yields, low meat consumption, a low population, and/or high conversion rates of natural areas. This paper explores the potential for bio‑energy production and the implications of different values for achieving low‑stabilization targets. The study examines scenarios of future land use, yield improvements, and available land under sustainability assumptions such as biodiversity protection, water scarcity risks, and land degradation. Scenario analysis indicates that sustainable bio‑energy production could reach 50–150 EJ by 2050 and 200–400 EJ by 2100, with a 200 EJ per annum potential sufficient to meet low‑stabilization targets, primarily supplying non‑transport sectors.
This paper explores the potential for bio-energy production, and the implications of different values for the attainability of low stabilization targets. The impact of scenarios of future land use, yield improvements for bio-energy and available land under different sustainability assumptions (protection of biodiversity, risks of water scarcity and land degradation) are explored. Typical values for sustainable potential of bio-energy production are around 50-150 EJ in 2050 and 200-400 EJ in 2100. Higher bio-energy potential requires a development path with high agricultural yields, dietary patterns with low meat consumption, a low population and/or accepting high conversion rates of natural areas. Scenario analysis using four different models shows that low stabilization levels may be achieved with a bio-energy potential of around 200 EJ p.a. In such scenarios, bio-energy is in most models mainly used outside the transport sector.
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