Public Support for European Integration: An Empirical Test of Five Theories

TLDR

Public opinion shapes and constrains European integration, yet existing explanations for why citizens support or oppose it remain conflicting and inadequately tested. This study empirically evaluates five leading theories of support for European integration to resolve that controversy. Using regression analyses of Eurobarometer surveys from 1978‑1992, the authors identify the partisan context of reforms and the utilitarian consequences of policy as robust explanatory factors. They find that, in contrast, political values and cognitive mobilization theories hold only limited, small effects in specific contexts.

Abstract

Public opinion, through its impact on mass behavior, shapes and constrains the process of European integration Why do citizens vary in their support for European integration? Previous research offers a variety of sometimes conflicting explanations, but the available evidence is insufficient to determine which explanations are valid. This article seeks to contribute to the resolution of this controversy by empirically examining five prominent theories of support for integration. Through regression analyses of Eurobarometer surveys from the period 1978-1992, the analysis shows that the partisan context of integrative reforms and the utilitarian consequences of integrative policy provide robust explanations for variation in support. In contrast, two other prominent theories-political values and cognitive mobilization-are only valid in a limited context, and in this context they exert a small substantive impact on support.