Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations

TLDR

The paper, published in ICES Journal of Marine Science, investigates how climate change affects fish populations. The authors review environmental variables and oceanographic features relevant to fish that are likely to be affected by climate change. They derive working hypotheses from species‑group responses and review published data on Northeast Atlantic fish to support a shift in abundance and distribution with warming. Pelagic species exhibit altered seasonal migrations, Lusitanian species have expanded northward while Boreal species have shifted northward and declined southward, suggesting climate‑driven changes in recruitment success. The paper develops a framework for studying climate effects on fish populations based on physiology, ecology, and observations.

Abstract

Abstract Rijnsdorp, A. D., Peck, M. A., Engelhard, G. H., Möllmann, C., and Pinnegar, J. K. 2009. Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1570–1583. This paper develops a framework for the study of climate on fish populations based on first principles of physiology, ecology, and available observations. Environmental variables and oceanographic features that are relevant to fish and that are likely to be affected by climate change are reviewed. Working hypotheses are derived from the differences in the expected response of different species groups. A review of published data on Northeast Atlantic fish species representing different biogeographic affinities, habitats, and body size lends support to the hypothesis that global warming results in a shift in abundance and distribution (in patterns of occurrence with latitude and depth) of fish species. Pelagic species exhibit clear changes in seasonal migration patterns related to climate-induced changes in zooplankton productivity. Lusitanian species have increased in recent decades (sprat, anchovy, and horse mackerel), especially at the northern limit of their distribution areas, while Boreal species decreased at the southern limit of their distribution range (cod and plaice), but increased at the northern limit (cod). Although the underlying mechanisms remain uncertain, available evidence suggests climate-related changes in recruitment success to be the key process, stemming from either higher production or survival in the pelagic egg or larval stage, or owing to changes in the quality/quantity of nursery habitats.