What Should Be the Implications of Uncertainty, Variability, and Inherent “Biases”/“Conservatism” for Risk Management Decision‐Making?¹

Abstract

This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk‐management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of “straw man” proposals about where we think Variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.