Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2013 · 660 citations · 26 references
AgricultureNatural Resource EconomicsResource EconomicsCrop ProductionEnvironmental EconomicsLand EconomicsEcosystem ProductivityPrimary ProductivityResource EfficiencyResource Use EfficiencySustainable Resource UseAboveground Net Primary ProductionBiodiversity LossCrop YieldsGlobal Primary ProductionHuman Intervention EffectsLand ResourcesPlant Biomass ProductionPotential Natural Vegetation
Global population, consumption, and GDP growth raise concerns about the sustainability of natural resource use, and the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) quantifies how much of the planet’s productive capacity is harvested, burned, or converted to lower‑productivity managed lands. From 1910 to 2005, HANPP doubled—rising from 13 % to 25 % of potential net primary production—despite a fourfold population increase and 17‑fold GDP growth, and projections suggest it could reach 27–29 % by 2050 under current efficiency gains, or 44 % if bioenergy expands, underscoring the need for careful land‑use efficiency strategies.
Global increases in population, consumption, and gross domestic product raise concerns about the sustainability of the current and future use of natural resources. The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) provides a useful measure of human intervention into the biosphere. The productive capacity of land is appropriated by harvesting or burning biomass and by converting natural ecosystems to managed lands with lower productivity. This work analyzes trends in HANPP from 1910 to 2005 and finds that although human population has grown fourfold and economic output 17-fold, global HANPP has only doubled. Despite this increase in efficiency, HANPP has still risen from 6.9 Gt of carbon per y in 1910 to 14.8 GtC/y in 2005, i.e., from 13% to 25% of the net primary production of potential vegetation. Biomass harvested per capita and year has slightly declined despite growth in consumption because of a decline in reliance on bioenergy and higher conversion efficiencies of primary biomass to products. The rise in efficiency is overwhelmingly due to increased crop yields, albeit frequently associated with substantial ecological costs, such as fossil energy inputs, soil degradation, and biodiversity loss. If humans can maintain the past trend lines in efficiency gains, we estimate that HANPP might only grow to 27-29% by 2050, but providing large amounts of bioenergy could increase global HANPP to 44%. This result calls for caution in refocusing the energy economy on land-based resources and for strategies that foster the continuation of increases in land-use efficiency without excessively increasing ecological costs of intensification.
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Solutions for a cultivated planet
Jonathan A. Foley, Navin Ramankutty, Kate A. Brauman et al. · Nature · 2011 · 8.3K citations · Full text
The Anthropocene: Are Humans Now Overwhelming the Great Forces of Nature
Will Steffen, Paul J. Crutzen, John McNeill · AMBIO · 2007 · 3.4K citations