Rupture termination at restraining bends: The last great earthquake on the Altyn Tagh Fault

Abstract

Abstract Strike‐slip rupture propagation falters where changes in fault strike increase Coulomb failure stress. Numerical models of this phenomenon offer predictions of rupture extent based on bend geometry, but have not been verified with field data. To test model predictions of rupture barriers, we examine rupture extent along a section of the sinistral Altyn Tagh Fault punctuated by three major double bends. We measure 3–8 m offsets and map >95 km of continuous scarps that define the most recent surface rupture. We document the eastern terminus of this rupture within the Aksay bend, where an undeformed Pleistocene alluvial fan we mapped and dated overlaps the fault. We conclude, based on this geomorphologic evidence, that multiple Holocene ruptures have stopped in the Aksay bend. Our field data validate model predictions of rupture termination at a >18° restraining bend and support use of geometric parameters to define expected earthquake sizes in seismic hazard models.