Optimizing Influenza Vaccine Distribution

TLDR

Public health policy assessment criteria are fundamental to optimization, and schoolchildren are key transmitters whose parents act as bridges to the broader population. A model calibrated with survey‑based contact data and pandemic mortality data was used to determine optimal vaccine allocation across five outcome measures. The optimal allocation prioritizes schoolchildren and adults aged 30–39, highlighting the importance of age‑specific transmission dynamics, and shows that current CDC recommendations for both novel swine‑origin and seasonal influenza are suboptimal across all outcome measures.

Abstract

The criteria to assess public health policies are fundamental to policy optimization. Using a model parametrized with survey-based contact data and mortality data from influenza pandemics, we determined optimal vaccine allocation for five outcome measures: deaths, infections, years of life lost, contingent valuation, and economic costs. We find that optimal vaccination is achieved by prioritization of schoolchildren and adults aged 30 to 39 years. Schoolchildren are most responsible for transmission, and their parents serve as bridges to the rest of the population. Our results indicate that consideration of age-specific transmission dynamics is paramount to the optimal allocation of influenza vaccines. We also found that previous and new recommendations from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention both for the novel swine-origin influenza and, particularly, for seasonal influenza, are suboptimal for all outcome measures.