Predicting biological invasions in marine habitats through eco‐physiological mechanistic models: a case study with the bivalve <i><scp>B</scp>rachidontes pharaonis</i>

Abstract

Abstract Aim We used a coupled biophysical ecology ( BE )‐physiological mechanistic modelling approach based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory ( DEB , Dynamic energy budget theory for metabolic organisation , 2010, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge; DEB ) to generate spatially explicit predictions of physiological performance (maximal size and reproductive output) for the invasive mussel, B rachidontes pharaonis . Location We examined 26 sites throughout the central M editerranean S ea. Methods We ran models under subtidal and intertidal conditions; hourly weather and water temperature data were obtained from the I talian B uoy Network, and monthly CHL ‐ a data were obtained from satellite imagery. Results Mechanistic analysis of the B . pharaonis fundamental niche shows that subtidal sites in the Central M editerranean are generally suitable for this invasive bivalve but that intertidal habitats appear to serve as genetic sinks. Main conclusions A BE ‐ DEB approach enabled an assessment of how the physical environment affects the potential distribution of B . pharaonis . Combined with models of larval dispersal, this approach can provide estimates of the likelihood that an invasive species will become established.