Predicting rare events in temporal domains

Abstract

Temporal data mining aims at finding patterns in historical data. Our work proposes an approach to extract temporal patterns from data to predict the occurrence of target events, such as computer attacks on host networks, or fraudulent transactions in financial institutions. Our problem formulation exhibits two major challenges: 1) we assume events being characterized by categorical features and displaying uneven inter-arrival times; such an assumption falls outside the scope of classical time-series analysis, 2) we assume target events are highly infrequent; predictive techniques must deal with the class-imbalance problem. We propose an efficient algorithm that tackles the challenges above by transforming the event prediction problem into a search for all frequent eventsets preceding target events. The class imbalance problem is overcome by a search for patterns on the minority class exclusively; the discrimination power of patterns is then validated against other classes. Patterns are then combined into a rule-based model for prediction. Our experimental analysis indicates the types of event sequences where target events can be accurately predicted.