Agricultural Crisis and Biological Well-Being in Mexico, 1730-1835

Abstract

In a peasant, pre-industrial society, such as eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century Mexico’s, how much did adverse climatic conditions and high food prices influence the opportunities of the popular classes? Did they affect urban rather than rural dwellers? The article aims to shed light on these questions by using long-run datasets of soldier heights, real food prices, El Niño global climatic events, and warm-season tree growth. First, a remarkable and generalized decline in living standards is observed. Average height declined, and the cost of food increased; by contrast, the climate had no long-run trend. Next, the effects of climate and real prices on height are estimated using regression analysis. High food prices and adverse climatic conditions had a deleterious effect on height. The effect of food prices on height was more pronounced among large city natives, while for the rest of the population, regional climatic conditions had more relevance. Shifting the focus from specific disastrous events to long-run dynamics, this essay argues that the distribution and acquisition of food has as much influence on biological well-being as the availability of food at a given time.