Applied Economics · 1986 · 13 citations · 7 references
BusinessBusiness EconomicsEconomicsEconometricsStochastic ModelingUncertainty QuantificationEstimation TheoryParameter Estimation Under UncertaintyProbabilistic ModelingSimulation MethodsSimulation ModelingUncertainty AnalysisDensityDensity Probability Distribution FunctionEconometric Forecast ModelsEconometric Forecasting ModelsProbability Density Function EstimationProbability Density Function ModelingSimulation UncertaintyStochastic Simulation
This paper outlines a new technique for calculating the mean and variance of the density function of a model's simulation properties. This technique is computationally more tractable than the only other existing technique (Fair, 1980). A set of five examples are then provided, using the National Institute's Model 7, of this technique in practical application.
7
Econometric Models of Cyclical Behaviour.
David F. Hendry, Bert G. Hickman · The Economic Journal · 1973 · 165 citations
Evaluating the reliability of macro-economic models
Journal of Macroeconomics · 1983 · 91 citations
Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models
Ray C. Fair · Econometrica · 1980 · 26 citations