The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses

TLDR

Agricultural land conversion is a major greenhouse‑gas debit of ethanol, and debates focus on whether crop‑yield growth can offset this conversion. The study shows that conventional yield‑response assumptions are too restrictive, and that acreage changes and bilateral trade dynamics are essential for predicting land‑use impacts, with each factor adding significant uncertainty.

Abstract

Abstract Recent analysis has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel. A controversial element of this debate is the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding cropland conversion in the face of biofuels growth. We find that standard assumptions of yield response are unduly restrictive. Furthermore, we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specifications as critical considerations for predicting global land use change. Sensitivity analysis reveals that each of these contributes importantly to parametric uncertainty.