Predicting age at menopause from serum antimüllerian hormone concentration

Abstract

In Brief Objective: We aimed to estimate age at menopause using serum antimüllerian hormone (AMH) concentration. Methods: We randomly selected 266 study participants from a pool of 1,265 eligible women in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study cohort. We measured AMH levels three times at about 3-year intervals. There were 63 occurrences of menopause in our participants over an average of 6-year follow-up. We built an accelerated failure time model using serum AMH level at the start of follow-up to estimate age at menopause. The goodness of fit for the model was tested using Cox-Snell residuals and the Bland-Altman plot. Results: We estimated ages at menopause for different levels of serum AMH concentration among women aged 20 to 49 years. For those who reached menopause, serum AMH concentrations about 6 years before the event provided fairly accurate estimates of the age at menopause. The Bland-Altman plot showed an acceptable agreement between predicted and observed values. Conclusions: Serum AMH concentrations can reasonably forecast the age at menopause for individual women. A statistical model is introduced to estimate the mean ages at menopause for women at different time points in their reproductive life span with varying levels of serum antimüllerian hormone concentration.