Power Play: Mediation in Symmetric and Asymmetric International Crises

Abstract

International relations scholars have long focused on power relations among nations as an explanatory factor for a wide variety of state behaviors, including alliance formation, strategic interactions, and negotiation strategies. Power transition theorists have argued that war is most likely when power is equally distributed among nations or, more precisely, when the power of the challenger approaches—or begins to exceed—that of its opponent (Organski, 1968 Organski, A. F. K. 1968. World Politics, New York: Knopf. [Google Scholar]; Organski and Kugler, 1980 Organski, A. F. K. and Kugler, Jacek. 1980. The War Ledger, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Kugler and Lemke, 1996 Kugler, Jacek and Lemke, Douglas. 1996. Parity and War: Evaluations and Extensions of The War Ledger, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). Balance of power theorists, on the other hand, have argued that equality of power among nations diminishes the chance of war, as uncertainty about outcomes caused by approximate power parity leads actors to be more cautious (Claude, 1962 Claude, Inis. 1962. Power and International Relations, New York: Random House. [Google Scholar]; Wright, 1965 Wright, Quincy. 1965. A Study of War , 2nd, Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. [Google Scholar]). The research presented here considers relative power not as a cause of conflict, as these previous studies have done, but as a factor relevant to conflict resolution efforts. In this study, we focus on crises as a specific instance of conflicts in the international system and on mediation as a specific conflict resolution measure. Building upon previous work (Wilkenfeld et al., 2003 Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Young, Kathleen, Asal, Victor and Quinn, David. 2003. Mediating International Crises: Cross-national and Experimental Perspectives. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47: 279–301. [CSA][CROSSREF][Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2005 Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, Young, Kathleen, Quinn, David and Asal, Victor. 2005. Mediating International Crises, London: Routledge. [Google Scholar]), we examine the way mediation styles and power relations among crisis actors interact and impact on whether the crisis ends in an agreement, and whether the crisis outcome leads to long-term, postcrisis tension reductions. This research is intended to extend understanding of the nature of crisis behavior and to inform efforts to manage crises most effectively.