Mortality from Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment

TLDR

Epidemiological studies consistently link ambient particulate matter concentrations to asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. The study models ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. The authors estimate global and regional mortalities by applying ship‑derived ambient PM increases to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration‑risk functions and population models, using the two emissions inventories and aerosol models. The study estimates that shipping‑related PM emissions cause about 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths annually, mainly near coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia, and that annual mortalities could rise by 40% by 2012 under current regulation and projected shipping growth.

Abstract

Epidemiological studies consistently link ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) to negative health impacts, including asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. We model ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. We estimate global and regional mortalities by applying ambient PM increases due to ships to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models. Our results indicate that shipping-related PM emissions are responsible for approximately 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths annually, with most deaths occurring near coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. Under current regulation and with the expected growth in shipping activity, we estimate that annual mortalities could increase by 40% by 2012.