Distributional versus singular approaches to probability and errors in probabilistic reasoning.

Abstract

Four experiments examined differences in probabilistic reasoning as a function of whether problems were presented in a frequentist or case-specific form. The experiments demonstrated that these different forms influence the likelihood of Ss committing the conjunction and disjunction fallacies. The authors contend that these 2 forms elicit different approaches to probability. Frequency problems, it is argued, elicit a distributional approach in which probabilities are equated with relative frequencies, whereas case-specific problems elicit a singular approach in which probabilities are equated with the propensities or causal forces operating in an individual case