On the Relation Between Fertility, Natality, and Nuptiality

Abstract

Recent studies of fertility in Europe indicate a changing cross-country correlation between total fertility and fertility-related behaviour. Fertility now tends to be lowest in countries that are traditional, catholic, and family-oriented, while it is highest in countries with high divorce rates, high rates of cohabitation, and high levels of extra-marital births. In this article we provide support to the argument that the change in the cross-country correlation between fertility and fertility-related behaviour may indicate a change in social context of this fertility-related behaviour that has helped to uncover cross-country differences in social norms, culture, and institutional settings. We apply pooled time series analysis and show that time and country heterogeneity in the association between fertility and fertility-related behaviour can explain the change in the cross-country correlation. Our results also indicate that further postponement of marriage and motherhood leads to less pronounced declines in fertility.