Disentangling the Climate-conflict Nexus: Empirical and Theoretical Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Pathways

TLDR

Recent research has shed new light on the link between climate change and violent conflict, yet long‑term historical studies show only a coincidental relationship and recent empirical evidence remains inconclusive. The review aims to synthesize peer‑reviewed literature on the climate‑conflict nexus, examine causal pathways—including precipitation, water scarcity, food insecurity, extreme weather, and migration—and identify future research priorities through an integrative framework. The authors compare methodologies and data across studies, applying an integrative framework that links climate change, natural resources, human security, and societal stability to analyze causal pathways. The review finds that low‑human‑development countries face heightened vulnerability to simultaneous natural disasters and armed conflict, underscoring the need for robust institutional frameworks and governance to mitigate climate‑induced conflict and enhance cooperation.

Abstract

Recent research has provided new insights into the relationship between climate change and violent conflict. In this review we compare the results, methodologies, and data applied in the peer-reviewed literature to recap the current state of the debate. While long-term historical studies suggest a coincidence between climate variability and armed conflict, empirical findings are less conclusive for recent periods. Disentangling the climate-conflict nexus, we discuss causal pathways such as precipitation changes, freshwater scarcity, food insecurity, weather extremes, and environmental migration. A geographic differentiation indicates that countries with low human development are particularly vulnerable to the double exposure of natural disasters and armed conflict. Thus, effective institutional frameworks and governance mechanisms are important to prevent climate-induced conflicts and to strengthen cooperation. Applying an integrative framework connecting climate change, natural resources, human security, and societal stability, we pinpoint future research needs.