Numerical simulations of CO2 arrival times and reservoir pressure coincide with observations from the Ketzin pilot site, Germany

TLDR

The study aims to reduce model uncertainties through an iterative loop, enabling advanced predictions of pressure development and CO₂ plume migration to support monitoring and site operation at Ketzin. Numerical simulations of CO₂ migration from June 2008 to December 2011 were performed using ECLIPSE 100 and TOUGH2‑MP, integrating a revised 3D geological model and Petrel geometries, with near‑ and far‑field well areas and permeability modifiers to match pressure and arrival‑time observations. The simulations matched observed CO₂ arrival times within 5.5–15 % and pressure values with even smaller deviations, demonstrating that incorporating operational and observation data improves geological model setup.

Abstract

Numerical simulations of CO2 migration for the period June 2008–December 2011 were performed based on a unique data set including a recently revised static geological 3D model of the reservoir formation of the Ketzin pilot site in Brandenburg, Germany. We applied the industrial standard ECLIPSE 100 and scientific TOUGH2-MP simulators for this task and implemented a workflow to allow for integration of complex model geometries from the Petrel software package into TOUGH2-MP. Definition of a near- and a far-field well area allowed us to apply suitable permeability modifiers, and thus to successfully match simulation results with pressure measurements and arrival times in observation wells. Coincidence was achieved for CO2 arrival times with deviations in the range of 5.5–15 % and pressure values in the injection well CO2 Ktzi 201/2007 and the observation well CO2 Ktzi 202/2007 with even smaller deviations. It is shown that the integration of unique operational and observation data in the workflow improves the setup of the geological model. Within such an iteration loop model uncertainties are reduced and enable advanced predictions for future reservoir behaviour with regard to pressure development and CO2 plume migration in the storage formation at the Ketzin pilot site supporting the implementation of monitoring campaigns and guiding site operation.