Frequency of typhoon landfall over Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470-1931

Abstract

Based on the records of local governments, the frequency of typhoon landfall over 22 cities/counties in the Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470–1931 is examined. The number of typhoons making landfall each year is used to form a time series. To reduce the level of uncertainty in the records, two other series are also formed, using 5- and 10-year totals. Application of various time series analysis techniques to the three series suggests that the frequency of typhoon landfall has a positive linear trend as well as centennial and decadal oscillations, the most significant being around 140–210 years and 30–60 years, respectively. Furthermore, the period of oscillation appears to change with time. Three sub-series can also be identified from this 462-year period: 1470–1667, 1668–1790 and 1791–1931. Each sub-series has its own characteristics, with a different autoregressive (AR) order. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society