Spamalytics

TLDR

Spam’s value depends on the probability that an unsolicited email will ultimately elicit a sale, yet quantitative studies of this conversion rate are scarce. The study introduces a methodology to measure spam conversion rates. The authors employ a parasitic infiltration of a botnet to analyze two campaigns—one distributing a malware Trojan and another marketing online pharmaceuticals. Analysis of nearly half a billion spam emails quantified delivery success, filter bypass, user visits, sales, and infections.

Abstract

The of spam--the probability that an unsolicited e-mail will ultimately elicit a sale--underlies the entire spam value proposition. However, our understanding of this critical behavior is quite limited, and the literature lacks any quantitative study concerning its true value. In this paper we present a methodology for measuring the conversion rate of spam. Using a parasitic infiltration of an existing botnet's infrastructure, we analyze two spam campaigns: one designed to propagate a malware Trojan, the other marketing on-line pharmaceuticals. For nearly a half billion spam e-mails we identify the number that are successfully delivered, the number that pass through popular anti-spam filters, the number that elicit user visits to the advertised sites, and the number of sales and infections produced.