Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?

TLDR

The study measures the “rally effect”—public support for the president during international crises—by analyzing changes in presidential popularity across 193 Militarized Interstate Disputes from 1933 to 1992. The authors assess the rally effect by examining presidential popularity shifts associated with each MID identified in the Correlates of War dataset. Findings show that rallies are generally minor and statistically insignificant, but larger rallies occur when the U.S.

Abstract

In this study, the “rally effect”—the propensity for the American public to put aside political differences and support the president during international crises—is measured by considering the changes in presidential popularity following all 193 Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) between 1933 and 1992 as identified by the Correlates of War project. Summary analyses find minor, statistically insignificant rallies associated with uses of force, although sizable rallies are associated with particular subcategories of military crises. However, larger rallies are associated with the United States as both revisionist and originator of the dispute, with the initiation of a full interstate war, and with prominent headline placement in the New York Times. Regression analyses indicate that rallies are more likely when they are associated with White House statements and bipartisan support for the administration's policies. Findings suggest that the size and appearance of a rally depends primarily on how the crisis is presented to the public in terms of media coverage, bipartisan support, and White House spin.