Producer Ability to Forecast Harvest Corn and Soybean Prices

Abstract

Corn and soybean producers' most likely low and high harvest price expectations were obtained in January and February each year from 1991-1996. Average expectations missed corn prices by $0.23-0.65 per bushel and missed soybean prices by $0.51-1.04 per bushel. Producer price expectations covered a wide range -- $1.00 for corn and $1.70 for soybeans. They consistently underestimated the probability of large price changes from January-February until harvest.