The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration

TLDR

The study uses cross‑country bilateral data to quantify a two‑step process of international migration and its aggregate determinants. The authors model migration as a two‑step process, first estimating how country‑specific factors influence the likelihood of individuals becoming potential migrants, then assessing how bilateral and destination characteristics determine the conversion of those potential migrants into actual migrants, using World Gallup survey data and national census records from 2000‑2010 for 138 origin and 30 destination countries. The study finds that destination‑side migrant networks and per‑capita income strongly determine the size of the potential migrant pool, while destination economic growth is the primary driver of migration opportunities for that pool, and that college‑educated individuals exhibit higher actual emigration rates mainly because they are better able to realize their migration potential rather than due to greater willingness to migrate.

Abstract

In this study, we use cross-country bilateral data to quantify a two-step process of international migration and its aggregate determinants. We first analyze which country-specific factors affect the probability that individuals join the pool of potential (aspiring) migrants. Then, we consider the bilateral and destination country factors that affect the frequency at which potential migrants turn into actual migrants. Using information on potential migrants from World Gallup surveys and on actual migrants from national censuses for 138 origin countries and 30 major destinations between 2000 and 2010, we analyze economic, policy, cultural, and network determinants of each step. We find that the size of the network of previous migrants and the average income per person at destination are crucial determinants of the size of the pool of potential migrants. Economic growth in the destination country, on the other hand, is the main economic generator of migration opportunities for a given pool of potential migrants. We also find that college-educated exhibit greater actual emigration rates mainly because of better chances in realizing their immigration potentials, rather than because of higher willingness to migrate.