A Practical Model of Metapopulation Dynamics

TLDR

The paper introduces a novel metapopulation dynamics model and evaluates the importance of specific habitat patches for long‑term persistence. The model uses a generalized incidence function linking occupied patch fraction to patch area and isolation, and can be fitted to presence/absence data at dynamic equilibrium. With estimated parameters, the model predicts transient dynamics and equilibrium occupancy fractions for any set of habitat patches.

Abstract

This paper describes a novel approach to modelling of metapopulation dynamics. The model is constructed as a generalized incidence function, which describes how the fraction of occupied habitat patches depends on patch areas and isolations. The model may be fitted to presence/absence data from a metapopulation at a dynamic equilibrium between extinctions and colonizations. Using the estimated parameter values, transient dynamics and the equilibrium fraction of occupied patches in any system of habitat patches can be predicted. The significance of particular habitat patches for the long-term persistence of the metapopulation, for example, can also be evaluated