Strong shaking in Los Angeles expected from southern San Andreas earthquake

Abstract

The southernmost San Andreas fault has a high probability of rupturing in a large (greater than magnitude 7.5) earthquake sometime during the next few decades. New simulations show that the chain of sedimentary basins between San Bernardino and downtown Los Angeles form an effective waveguide that channels Love waves along the southern edge of the San Bernardino and San Gabriel Mountains. Earthquake scenarios with northward rupture, in which the guided wave is efficiently excited, produce unusually high long‐period ground motions over much of the greater Los Angeles region, including intense, localized amplitude modulations arising from variations in waveguide cross‐section.