Processing Extreme Values in Sales Forecasting

Abstract

This article provides a tool for determining, on the basis of experts’ sales forecasts, the extent to which a company's sales forecasts can be regarded as a particular value. To this end, different alternatives for assigning triangular fuzzy numbers are presented whose vertices are obtained by means of OWA-type aggregation functions. Said functions act on the experts’ sales forecasts, eliminating or softening outliers in line with the personal opinion of the entrepreneur or business owner, thus making it possible to include in the forecasts company-specific knowledge unknown to the experts.