Predicting the impact of school-based treatment for urinary schistosomiasis given by the Ghana Partnership for Child Development

Abstract

Mathematical models can be used to predict the impact of interventions to control infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemiological model is used to predict the impact of chemotherapy of school-age children infected with Schistosoma haematobium, in a programme conducted by the Ghana Partnership for Child Development in the Volta Region, Ghana. Existing data were used to validate the predictions of the model, demonstrating convincingly the ability of the model to make correct predictions. Predictions of trends in mean egg count, infection prevalence and prevalence of heavy infection (> 50 eggs/10 mL urine) were then made for the period 1997-1999, and will be compared to the data collected in the programme in the future.