On the Timing of Genocide

Abstract

This article offers new insights as to the timing of genocide. Current models of the preconditions of genocide offer value information as to its antecedents, but do not adequately explain how these factors develop and coalesce over time. The present article follows the temporal development of the risk of genocide in both the Ottoman Empire prior to the Armenian genocide of 1915 and Rwanda prior to the 1994 genocide. Through analyzing these case studies, it suggests that there are substantial commonalities in the progression of risk of genocide over time. A new model is proposed that incorporates temporal progression as an integral component of understanding the factors that lead to genocide.