Car Ownership Modelling and Forecasting

Abstract

This book is concerned with the modelling and forecasting of car ownership in Great Britain at the national, regional and local levels. It is mostly concerned with the types of models and forecasts needed by transport planners. A national car ownership analysis with extrapolative approaches to forecasting is presented, and the TRRL logistic curve fitting approach is outlined and discussed. The trend towards econometric and causal modelling is examined. One chapter focuses on local car ownership forecasting at the urban level, drawing heavily on work undertaken in the West Yorkshire conurbation. Emphasis is placed upon the development of econometric models at this level of aggregation and the role they can play in improving overall traffic forecasting and local transport policymaking. The importance of model specification and calibration is considered. The main socio-economic variables which help determine temporal and geographical trends in car ownership levels (income, household composition, fuel prices and accessibility) are discussed. (TRRL)